In an effort to reduce the estimated death toll of up to 300,000 people, the Japanese government has stated that significantly more preparation is needed for a potential megaquake.

Although earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted, a government panel in January raised the estimated probability of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough, located off Japan’s southern coast, to between 75% and 82%.

In March, the government released updated figures, warning that a megaquake and subsequent tsunami could result in approximately $2 trillion in damages and up to 298,000 deaths.

The Central Disaster Management Council had issued a preparedness plan in 2014 that included a set of countermeasures aimed at reducing the death toll by 80%.

However, a revised contingency plan published on Tuesday indicates that the measures taken so far will only reduce the estimated fatalities by about 20%, according to Kyodo News.

The updated recommendations include speeding up the construction of evacuation buildings and embankments, as well as increasing the frequency of evacuation drills in order to enhance public preparedness.

“It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies, and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible,” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said during a government meeting, as reported by local media.

The Nankai Trough is a 500-mile-long subduction zone running parallel to Japan’s Pacific coast, where one tectonic plate slowly slides beneath another.

Megaquakes in this region have historically occurred every 100 to 200 years over the past 1,400 years. The most recent one struck in 1946.

The initial advisory, which suggested the increased likelihood of a megaquake, was issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in August last year, but was withdrawn a week later.

Concerns have grown due to unfounded fears spread on social media about an imminent earthquake, leading some international tourists to postpone their trips to Japan this summer.

One notable source of anxiety is a manga comic, reprinted in 2021, that predicted a catastrophic event occurring on July 5, 2025.

In May, a local tourism official told AFP that Hong Kong-based Greater Bay Airlines had reduced flights to Japan, citing a sudden drop in demand.

According to Japan’s tourism agency, the number of visitors from Hong Kong fell by 11.2% in May compared to the same month in the previous year.

In contrast, tourist arrivals from South Korea rose by 11.8%, and visitors from mainland China increased by 44.8%.

“It is impossible with current science to predict earthquakes by specifying the location, time, and magnitude of an earthquake, and to say that an earthquake will or will not occur,” Ryoichi Nomura, head of the JMA, said in May.

“We ask the public to take certain steps so that you can cope with earthquakes no matter when they occur. But we also strongly urge the public not to make irrational actions driven by anxiety.”

A magnitude 9.0 earthquake in 2011 struck roughly 81 miles offshore beneath the North Pacific. In some places, the tsunami generated waves up to 132 feet high and resulted in over 15,500 deaths.

The disaster also triggered the meltdown of three nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, releasing radioactive material into the environment and forcing thousands of people to evacuate their homes.

Experts suggest that a megaquake occurring in the Nankai Trough could potentially be even more destructive than the 2011 earthquake, which remains the strongest ever recorded in Japan’s history.